What are the odds?
@Reader
The Coin Flip Bias
Not Really 50/50?
Persi Diaconis, a mathematician who used to be a magician, did some interesting experiments on coin flipping.
One of Diaconis’s most surprising discoveries was that a coin flip is not 50/50. If it starts heads up, it has a 51% chance of landing heads up again due to the way it’s flipped and where it starts.
Flipping Coins For Serious Things.
Coin flipping dates back to ancient Rome, where it was known as “Nava or Caput,” well that’s because they had Nava (“Ship”) on one side and Caput (“Head”).
Beyond a game, it was a serious decision-making tool deeply rooted in culture. Romans often infused coin flips with religious and superstitious beliefs, seeing the outcome as influenced by divine will or fate.
Famous Coin Tosses In History
The Canadian Dollar Coin
- In 1987, Canada introduced its one-dollar coin, and the final design choice was decided by a coin toss between a voyageur and a loon. The loon design won, and the coin was affectionately named the “Loonie.” This choice had a lasting cultural impact, making the Loonie a notable symbol in Canadian currency.
1960 Olympic Games
- The host city for the 1960 Winter Olympics was chosen by a coin toss between Squaw Valley, California, and Innsbruck, Austria. Squaw Valley won and hosted the Games, which brought significant international attention and development to the area.
Famous Presidential Election Tie (1838)
- In the 1838 Massachusetts gubernatorial election, the result was so close that the decision fell to the state legislature. When the legislature’s vote also ended in a tie, a coin toss determined that the Whig candidate Edward Everett would become governor.
Boeing vs. Lockheed (1971)
- In 1971, Boeing and Lockheed were both vying for a major contract to build the U.S. Air Force’s new military transport aircraft. The decision was so close that it was said to be decided by a coin flip. Lockheed won and went on to produce the C-5 Galaxy, which became a key part of the U.S. military’s airlift capabilities.
U.S. House of Representatives (1994)
- In Wyoming’s 1994 state House election, a tie between Republican Randall Luthi and Democrat Larry Call was decided by a coin toss. Luthi won the toss and the seat, showing how chance can impact political outcomes at the state level.